US Treasury 1M-30Y curve + key spreads + regime classifier.
“The yield curve plots government bond yields across maturities, a watched read on rate expectations.”
US Treasury 1M-30Y curve + key spreads + regime classifier.
1-month through 30-year Treasury yields plotted in tenor order. A normal curve slopes up (longer = higher yield); inverted = recession signal historically.
2s10s, 3m10y, 5s30s — the spreads that matter for cycle reads. 3m10y is the New York Fed's preferred recession-probability input. Inversion + widening at the front-end = market expects cuts.
Current curve shape bucketed: STEEPENING / FLATTENING / INVERTED / NORMAL. A regime change is one of the highest-conviction macro signals; the chip tracks it real-time.
Inversion + widening credit spreads = late-cycle recession signal. Inversion + tight credit + funding stress = stagflation risk. Inversion alone = front-end cuts coming.
CSP