EWMA of actual-vs-consensus economic releases.
“The economic surprise panel tracks whether data is beating or missing consensus, rising when the data runs hotter than expected.”
EWMA of actual-vs-consensus economic releases.
Y axis = surprise index (positive = data beating consensus, negative = missing). EWMA smooths individual prints into a regime read. Above zero + rising = data is hot, hawkish repricing risk for rates.
Below the headline: per-category contributions (growth / inflation / employment / trade). The category dragging or pushing tells you WHICH part of the macro narrative is moving — growth surprises ≠ inflation surprises in their impact.
Right rail: chronological list of recent releases with actual vs consensus + standardised z-score. Big z-score (|z| > 2) = outlier print; expect immediate rate / FX / equity re-pricing.
Surprise index up + FFIP repricing toward more hikes = consistent macro trade (front-end sell-off). Surprise index up + FFIP unmoved = market disagreeing with the data; sticky narrative may break.
FFIP