Contango / backwardation curve for VIX / ES / CL / GC / ZN.
The contango/backwardation curve for VIX, ES, CL, GC and ZN. The shape is the regime: upward-sloping is the resting state, and an inverted front month means the market is paying for protection right now.
Reach for itBefore any volatility trade, and any morning the tape has changed character.
“The term structure panel plots a contract's forward curve across expiries, contango when later months are dearer, backwardation when cheaper.”
Contango / backwardation curve for VIX / ES / CL / GC / ZN.
Open itAdd Panel ▸ Macro ▸ Positioning & Options ▸ Volatility Term Structure (VIX curve + SKEW)
X axis = months out (front month = leftmost, back months extending right). Y axis = futures price. Up-sloping curve = contango (storage / carry-driven). Down-sloping = backwardation (scarcity / deferred-supply expectation).
Steep VIX contango = calm regime; vol selling attractive. VIX backwardation = stressed regime; buy front-month protection if you don't already have it. Sharp kink at the 30-day node is the canary for an event 30+ days out.
Bottom: per-pair roll yield (front - second month, etc). Negative roll yield = you bleed money holding futures (contango decay). Positive = you collect roll-down (backwardation premium).
Sharp curve flattening over a few sessions = regime change in progress. Type HVOL to see whether realised vol on the underlying confirms (or contradicts) the curve's signal.
