HY / IG / AAA / BBB OAS + CDX indices + EMBI + regime classifier.
“The credit spreads panel tracks corporate borrowing costs over Treasuries, where widening spreads are a classic stress signal.”
HY / IG / AAA / BBB OAS + CDX indices + EMBI + regime classifier.
High-yield, investment-grade, AAA, BBB option-adjusted spreads plotted on shared y-axis. Spreads widen = risk-off / recession-priced. Compress = risk-on / spread-compression cycle. Watch which tier moves first.
Top-right: COMPRESSED / NORMAL / WIDENING / STRESS / CRISIS. Compressed = full risk-on; fewer trading opportunities. Crisis = HY > 1000bp; few trade well except short-credit hedges.
CDX HY + CDX IG + EMBI sovereigns shown as complementary lines. CDX leads cash spreads because synthetics trade more liquidly. EMBI widening + DM IG calm = EM-specific stress (often FX-driven).
Velocity matters more than level. Fast widening (> 20bp / day on HY) = repricing in progress; slow drift = mark-to-market with no flow. Trade the velocity not the absolute spread for short-term tactical calls.
