INFLATION MONITOR

CPI / Core CPI / PCE / Core PCE / PPI YoY vs the 2% Fed target.

1. STEP 01 / 03

   Five inflation gauges, one panel

   Headline CPI, Core CPI, headline PCE, Core PCE, PPI all plotted as YoY time series with the Fed's 2% target as the reference line. Core PCE is the Fed's preferred measure — that's the line that moves cuts.

2. STEP 02 / 03

   Watch divergence between headline and core

   Headline CPI above Core CPI = energy + food driving the print (transitory). Core trending up while headline cools = sticky services inflation (the harder problem; persistent rate path).

3. STEP 03 / 03

   Cross-check with FFIP

   Type FFIP to compare the inflation trajectory to what the market is pricing for FOMC outcomes. Stickier-than-priced inflation = surprise hawkish repricing risk.

   PaletteFFIP