What the market is pricing for upcoming FOMC meetings.
“The fed funds probability panel reads what the market prices for coming policy meetings, as odds of a hike, hold or cut.”
What the market is pricing for upcoming FOMC meetings.
Columns = upcoming FOMC meetings in chronological order. Rows = candidate target rates. Cell shading = market-implied probability of that rate at that meeting. Brightest cells = consensus path.
The overlaid line connects each meeting's weighted-mean expected rate. A steep down-slope across the next 4 meetings = aggressive cutting cycle priced. Flat = stay-on-hold consensus.
Steel reference line at the current target. Probability above = cuts priced; below = hikes priced. The size of the gap to the implied path is the magnitude of repricing the market expects.
Type DOTS to open the FOMC SEP dot plot. The market's implied path here vs the FOMC's own projection there is the most-watched divergence in macro trading.
DOTS