IFMO — Inflation Monitor

CPI / Core CPI / PCE / Core PCE / PPI YoY vs the 2% Fed target.

1. STEP 01 / 03

   Five inflation gauges, one panel

   Headline CPI, Core CPI, headline PCE, Core PCE, PPI all plotted as YoY time series with the Fed's 2% target as the reference line. Core PCE is the Fed's preferred measure — that's the line that moves cuts.

2. STEP 02 / 03

   Watch divergence between headline and core

   Headline CPI above Core CPI = energy + food driving the print (transitory). Core trending up while headline cools = sticky services inflation (the harder problem; persistent rate path).

3. STEP 03 / 03

   Cross-check with FFIP

   Type FFIP to compare the inflation trajectory to what the market is pricing for FOMC outcomes. Stickier-than-priced inflation = surprise hawkish repricing risk.

   PaletteFFIP

A multi-series year-over-year chart of the five inflation gauges the Fed and market actually watch: CPI, Core CPI, PCE, Core PCE, and PPI. The Fed's preferred measure — Core PCE — is drawn with a thicker stroke. The Fed's 2% target is a dashed reference line.

• Palette: add ifmo.
• Mnemonics: IFMO, INFLATION, CPI, PCE.

• Ahead of CPI / PCE prints — is inflation converging to 2% or running away?
• Rate-decision weeks — the Fed's posture is a function of this chart.
• Cross-reference against Fed Funds Probability to see how market-implied rate paths react to inflation shifts.

• Fed Funds Probability — market-implied rate path, moves on every print.